IHJ Roundtable
IHJ Policy Roundtable 2026
[Event Report] IHJ Policy Roundtable with Patrick M. Cronin —“Complacency Before Crisis: Deterrence and the U.S.-Japan Alliance”
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The International House of Japan (IHJ) convened an IHJ Policy Roundtable on June 29, 2026, with Dr. Patrick M. Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute. The roundtable explored changing security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the future of deterrence within the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Dr. Cronin discussed the implications of the so-called “Davidson window” and argued that the greater danger may not be imminent conflict, but growing complacency as deterrence gradually erodes. He emphasized that rising Chinese capabilities, gray-zone coercion, rapid technological change, and instability in the international order are narrowing the margin for maintaining regional stability.
The discussion also touched upon the need for the United States to strengthen cooperation and integration of industrial and military capabilities with its allies. Participants then exchanged views on various issues including: how to ensure commitment from US allies, the role of nuclear deterrence, effective US commitment to the Indo-Pacific and the role of India as well as Japan-China relations in Indo-pacific security.
The roundtable provided a valuable opportunity to reflect on the evolving security environment and the future of deterrence and alliance cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
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